January 2023 Market Snapshot



How did the first month of 2023 go for you? Are you after glowing from the holidays? Or was it a recovery road? Don't worry about it! Think of January as a one-month free trial for the coming year - take what you need to find your groove. As far as real estate goes, the market is still tight like my pants after a cheat meal. Inventory levels are the lowest they have been in January since the 90's. It is slim pickings, especially for lower-priced properties. With only 2,451 units available for sale, inventory levels are 43% lower than long-term trends for the month. There is a lot of price-driven variance for supply challenges. Higher lending rates are pushing buyers to shift towards more affordable property types. Homes priced under $500,000 are in high demand but inventory levels fell almost 30%. On the other hand, the supply of homes priced above that tipping point shows more options for buyers. Total residential benchmark price trended down for 7 months in a row; January broke that sliding streak! This month, the overall benchmark price bumped up to $520,900, about 5% higher than last year's January. Let's chop this up and see what is happening in each property types.

DETACHED

These homes that used to be the talk of the town for the last two years, saw the largest pullback in sales. The higher lending rates are cooling the demand for high-priced homes, especially in the more expensive City Centre district. In lower price ranges, supply is still incredibly low, which is keeping the sales level low as well. The supply & demand gap  is trending in opposite directions depending on price ranges. Benchmark price came up a tad to $622,800. It has simmered from our peaks in May 2022 but January is typically known as a "slow month", price gains are still 7% higher than January of last year.


SEMI-DETACHED

Again, there was a decline in new listings for semi-detached homes. Inventory levels in this January were even lower than last year - and it was already low at that time! Along with low inventory levels, sales for semi-detached homes also slowed down, but they are still higher than pre-COVID sales levels. Similar to its close relative above, the semi-detached sector is seeing divergent price trends. Lower priced properties are still in high demand and assuming they are price appropriately, they are flying off the shelves. Most districts around the city saw benchmark price growth. At $559,200, the semi-detached benchmark price slid a smidge from December but compared to January last year, we are up nearly 6%.


ROWS & TOWNS

Tight market for townhomes right now! Sales pulled back after the holidays but are well above long-term trends for January. It was tough to push for higher sales with such low inventory levels. In January, new listings dropped in the last year and are more than 20% lower than long-term trends. The months of supply this is still below 2 months - you guessed it, still a sellers' market. The persistent tight market conditions pushed benchmark price up to $361,400. This is not far from the peak in June 2022 when the benchmark price was $363,700. 



APARTMENTS

We have something different to report for apartment condominiums. Compared to last month, January saw 545 new listings come to market, that's almost 90% more than December. Sales were up from December as well, keeping inventory levels below long-term trends for January. There are more buyers shifting their focus towards apartments - first-time buyers, people that are priced out of other property types, local and out-of-province investors are shopping in this sector. Benchmark price pushed up to $277,600. January price growth was propelled by strong gains in East and NE districts of Calgary. Overall, benchmark price in January is 1% up from the previous month, and almost a 10% Y/Y gain. Slowly but surely, the last 18 months have been a great path towards narrowing the spread from record-high prices from 2014


January is a month to start fresh, try new things, and set the tone for the year. Buyers and sellers are taking on new real estate - homes or investments, or both! I think it's pretty safe to say that this year is starting off with a very different tone than last January. With seven rate increases in 2022, this year can feel very uncertain for many people but we are resilient and we will find a way to move forward. With lower cost of living here, and increasing migration into the province, Alberta is positioned for lower lending rate impact compared to other parts of the country. I'm not saying we have it easy, I'm just saying that it's all relative.


Source: creb.com